Vol. 9 pp. 310-327

 A.S. Melnikova, E.S. Nasyrova, N.A. Kalsin

ANALYSIS OF THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF OIL SPILLS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS

 

Annotation. A comprehensive study of the spatiotemporal distribution of oil spills and their relationship with socio-economic and institutional factors was conducted. Based on an analysis of data from 43 countries covering the period 1903–2023, spatial heterogeneity was revealed: spill volumes range from 35 tons to 2.69 million tons, while no correlation was found between the frequency and magnitude of accidental spills. An examination of the long-term dynamics of spills from tankers (1970–2024) showed a reduction in their total number by 83.05% over a 50-year period. However, over a 20-year period, the proportion of large-scale spills increased from 20% to 60% despite an overall reduction in the number of incidents by 60%. Correlation analysis using Spearman's coefficient revealed statistically significant relationships between spill volume and only two factors: the amount of fossil fuel subsidies (rs = 0.45117; p = 0.002) and the volume of oil production (rs = 0.33613; p = 0.028). Hypotheses regarding the influence of institutional factors (corruption and rule of law indices) and technological-environmental factors (port infrastructure quality, R&D expenditures, environmental performance index) were not statistically supported. The results indicate a shift in the risk profile toward catastrophic incidents and underscore the need for targeted regulatory measures aimed specifically at preventing large-scale spills.

Keywords: oil, spill, factor, correlation analysis, Spearman coefficient.

 

For citation: Melnikova A.S., Nasyrova E.S., Kalsin N.A. [Analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of oil spills and their relationship with socio-economic and institutional factors] Upravlenie tekhnosferoi, 2026, vol. 9, issue 2, рр. 310–327. DOI: 10.35634/UdSU.2026.96.67.004. (In Russ.).

 

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About the Authors

Melnikova Anna Sergeevna

graduate student, Ufa University of Science and Technology, 4500076, Ufa city, Z.Validi st. 32, Russia. E-mail: Адрес электронной почты защищен от спам-ботов. Для просмотра адреса в вашем браузере должен быть включен Javascript.

Nasyrova Elina Sagitovna

Associate Professor, Candidate of Technical Sciences, Ufa University of Science and Technology

4500076, Ufa city, Z.Validi st. 32, Russia.

E-mail: Адрес электронной почты защищен от спам-ботов. Для просмотра адреса в вашем браузере должен быть включен Javascript.

 

 Kalsin Nikita Aleksandrovich

graduate student, Ufa University of Science and Technology

4500076, Ufa city, Z.Validi st. 32, Russia.

E-mail: Адрес электронной почты защищен от спам-ботов. Для просмотра адреса в вашем браузере должен быть включен Javascript.

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